学周刊发表文2023年,学周刊发表文资料

本文是一篇环境科学论文范文,环境科学有关自考毕业论文开题报告,关于学周刊发表文2016年,学周刊发表文资料相关函授毕业论文范文。适合环境科学及图书馆及大气科学方面的的大学硕士和本科毕业论文以及环境科学相关开题报告范文和职称论文写作参考文献资料下载。

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5专题报道

*全球变暖大气科学信息追踪*大西洋的飓风会更少

图书馆业务

**2016年月到馆中外期刊国外大气科学期刊论文摘 要

*天气

*气候

*气候变化

国外期刊论文目录

专题报道全球变暖近年来,与气候变暖有关的极端天气或气候事件在全球大多数地方越来越频繁地发生,造成各种灾害,给社会经济,生态环境以及人类健康带来诸多不利影响.食物供应.伊恩·休姆教授等人通过实验室研究发现,空气中二氧化碳含量升高会增加桉树树叶中抗营养物质的含量.抗营养物质是指那些干扰植物吸收营养物质的成分.桉树树叶中的抗营养物质主要由碳构成,空气中二氧化碳浓度升高将会促进抗营养物质合成.抗营养物质增加后,桉树树叶中的营养成分会减少,使考拉"食不甘味".伊恩·休姆同时指出,气温升高还会影响桉树生长,导致一些对温度变化适应能力差的桉树树种消失.

德国科学家最近提出一种新的可能的解决手段,即有意识地种植森林,通过光合作用固定二氧化碳,然后通过永久掩埋的方法将这部分碳从全球碳循环中脱离出去.相关论文发表在《化学与可持续性,能源与材料》杂志上,这是一本2016年新发行的化学领域学术期刊.

6位诺贝尔奖得主在内的1700多名着名科学家2016年6月1日发出公开信,呼吁美国政府带头减少二氧化碳排放量.

国家生态系统观测研究网络综合研究中心主任于贵瑞表示,面对全球变暖与碳循环问题,中国仅仅研究如何减排是不够的,还应该同时研究如何多固定碳.这几年,中国科学院,科技部和国家自然科学基金委都启动了一些全球变化与碳循环方面的研究项目,中国科学界在应对全球变化方面做了很多工作.未来,中国以及亚洲的区域碳分布研究可能会得到更多的关注和加强.比如,2007年就已经开始了东亚区域碳通量和碳循环的中,日,韩三国国际合作研究计划.另外,能源结构,生产方式,生活方式等人类活动如何适应气候变化的问题也都将成为关注的热点问题,碳排放,碳吸收,大气中氮沉降如何影响碳过程等都是重要的研究课题.

最新一期出版的英国《自然》周刊发表的一项研究称,大量减少大气中炭黑(亦称煤烟)的数量,能帮助减缓全球变暖的步伐,并且能在对抗气候变暖的长期斗争中夺取宝贵时间.美国的两位研究人员总结数十项最近的科学研究,计算出炭黑是造成全球变暖的第二大元凶,仅次于化石燃料燃烧的副产品二氧化碳.美国加州大学圣迭戈分校斯克里普斯海洋学研究所和艾奥瓦大学科学家在最新一期《自然地球科学》杂志发表报告说,他们分析了来自卫星,宇宙飞船以及地表仪器的观测数据后发现,炭黑对地球造成的辐射强度约为0.9瓦特/平方米,远远超过了联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会去年估计的0.2瓦特/平方米至0.4瓦特/平方米.

国圣迭戈斯克里普斯研究所的维拉巴德兰·拉马纳坦说,大量减少炭黑的排放不仅是可能的,而且效果显着.此外,研究显示,抑制煤烟排放还能挽救生命.美国科学家最近发表研究报告说,炭黑是造成全球变暖的重要因素之一,其对地球造成的辐射强度相当于二氧化碳的60%.

据路透社报道,欧盟资助的研究表明,作为全球最重要的吸收二氧化碳的海洋之一,北大西洋目前吸收的二氧化碳量只相当于20世纪90年代中期的一半.科学家说,海洋吸收的二氧化碳量每年都有波动,很难预计以后的发展趋势,也不清楚海洋将来是否还能发挥至关重要的平衡作用.科学家仍在讨论和研究海洋吸收二氧化碳减少的原因.有人认为是海洋中的二氧化碳含量达到了饱和,也有人认为可能是因为气候周期的变化导致海洋表面的水循环发生了改变,从而影响了对二氧化碳的吸收.海洋每年吸收全球大约四分之一的二氧化碳排放量,但是一旦将来海洋无法发挥这一作用,那么二氧化碳就会滞留在大气中,加剧温室效应.此次研究的负责人克里斯托夫·海因策说,这种前景"令人担忧".

二、全球气候变暖未来的预测模型

据美国生活科学网报道,一项新研究表明,全球变暖迫使30种爬行动物和两栖动物纷纷逃往山上,然而当它们的栖息地转向高山时,随着全球变暖进一步加剧,它们将很快就没有地方可以撤退了.这种转变会导致一些动物面临灭绝的危险.一位生物学家表示,到本世纪末,这种转变至少会导致非洲岛国马达加斯加岛2种蟾蜍和1种壁虎灭绝.美国研究人员以8400多种鸟类的栖息地作为模拟对象,根据对本世纪内全球变暖程度的不同预测,建立60种实验模型.斯坦福大学研究人员恰安·谢凯尔吉奥卢说,所有模型里,预计本世纪内全球气温平均上升6.4摄氏度的模型实验结果最糟.实验中,伴随这一程度的全球变暖,人类进行大规模土地开发,导致鸟类栖息地大量减少,预计占全球总数30%的2498种陆地鸟面临灭绝.

确认目前的变化是不是真正意义上的气候系统变暖,寻找气候变暖的主要原因,评估变暖可能造成的影响,制定适应和减缓全球变暖的方案,这是一项艰巨的工作.不同学术观点的交锋让每次研究会议都成了喧闹的集市.IPCC将全世界的观测数据和智慧集中在一起,于2007年公布第四次评估报告.在"一个国家一个国家地签字同意之后",这份报告宣布:人类活动造成气候变暖已成科学界的共识.

美国《科学》周刊上刊登研究报告认为,气候变化已经对水循环造成严重影响,这意味着供水危机正在逼近人类.报告还说,气候变化已经导致降雨模式和河水流量有所变化,为一些地区带来更大的洪水威胁.海平面的上升也会增加沿海淡水资源的污染危险,亚热带干旱地区向两极扩张则会减少径流水量.法国国家科学研究中心主任让—克洛德·加斯卡尔在新闻发布会上说,2007年9月数据显示,北极冰盖面积为413万平方公里,而2005年这一数据为530万平方公里."北极冰盖面积2007年夏季迅速减少,速度是先前的两至三倍.这是我们未曾预料到的."加斯卡尔说,相比之下,用于预测北极冰盖融化的国际模型应该"追赶"上这一速度.这一研究中心公布的数据显示,过去20年里,北极冰盖面积减少了40%,平均厚度从3米减至1.5米.新一期美国《科学》杂志发表的研究结果显示,受全球变暖影响,海洋低氧区面积正在逐渐扩大,已危及许多海洋生物的生存.德国和美国科学家进行的新研究发现,全球变暖会为海洋低氧区的形成"推波助澜".他们在定于正式出版的新一期《科学》杂志上发表报告说,过去50年中,全球变暖已使中,东赤道大西洋和赤道太平洋的低氧区不断扩大.此外,墨西哥湾和其他一些海域最近几年也出现了低氧区.

美俄科学家2016年5月1日在《全球变化生物学》杂志网络版发表报告说,从1946年至今,贝加尔湖的表面水温上升了1.21摄氏度,比同期全球平均气温上升速度要快得多.与此同时,贝加尔湖的食物链也发生了巨大变化.在水温上升的环境下,水草光合作用加快,导致贝加尔湖的叶绿素a水平自1979年以来上升了300%.此外,湖中多细胞浮游动物数量自1946年以来猛增了335%.美国国家海洋和大气管理局海洋科学家詹姆斯·奥弗兰说,就所承受的太阳辐射以及局部大气中所含有的温室效应气体而言,北极和南极没有差异,但两极气候变化却存在差异.观测结果显示,去年夏季,北极水域冰层覆盖面积创下历史最小纪录.依现有观测和研究结果推断,今年夏季,气候升温,北极水域冰层将延续融化和变薄进程.

英国南极考察局气候学家加雷思·马歇尔则强调,"全球气候升温"一词看似简单,它在不同地区的实际作用机理却相当复杂.马歇尔说,在南极,气候变化致风力加强,使相对较冷的空气得以滞留.他的推断与奥弗兰相同,即这种情形不久的将来会发生变化,南极地区在气候升温面前难以"幸免".

据西班牙"世界报"日前报道,德国基尔大学教授洛塔尔·斯特拉马领导的研究小组对热带海洋地区近50年来的氧气浓度进行了监测,其研究成果发表在美国最新一期《科学》周刊上,斯特拉马和同事通过这种方式确定了大洋中的缺氧区域.具体而言,他们证实位于赤道太平洋海域和热带大西洋海域300米至700米深的水层中,每公斤海水的氧气浓度每年减少0.09微摩尔至0.34微摩尔.他们指出,氧气浓度很容易受到海水和空气之间关系的影响,因此溶解在海水中的氧气很适合作为了解海洋在气候变化中的作用的参数.他们说:"在每公斤海水中氧气浓度低于60微摩尔至120微摩尔的情况下,大型海洋生物会受到严重压力甚至死亡."

一个由法国,英国,日本和俄罗斯科学家组成的研究小组运用精确的科学方法,证明了气候变暖使树叶新生期提前的事实.法国国家科研中心2016年3月10日发布公告指出,研究小组选取了欧亚大陆北部的森林作为研究对象,这是因为在北半球的高海拔地区,树叶的新生期主要取决于温度,这样就能更加准确地分析出气候变暖对树叶生长的影响.研究人员通过对卫星提供的数据进行分析,发现从1982年至今,欧亚大陆北部森林的树叶新生期普遍提前了5天,在1987年到1990年间,这种变化尤为明显.《自然》杂志刊登了南京师范大学地理科学学院汪永进教授率领的研究组的论文,他们对采集于湖北神农架洞穴内11支不同时期形成的石笋进行精确铀钍同位素测年.研究后发现,在过去的22.4万年中,东亚季风气候的干湿变化,以2.3万年为周期,随太阳辐射能量而同步变化.这个循环又被千年周期季风气候事件所打断,其频率与持续时间在冰期——间冰期旋回中极其相似,具有可预测性.前几年的科幻大片"后天"中所描述的情况并非没有科学依据."气候突变可能会使区域气候出现从间冰期到冰河期的变化,也许比通常想象的要快得多."

德国莱布尼茨海洋科学研究所和马普气象学研究所最近发表报告称,未来10年全球气候变暖将趋缓,这一预测报告刊登在最近出版的英国《自然》科学杂志上.这两家研究所首次对未来10年的全球短期气候变化进行了研究并作出预测,这项预测特意结合了全球海洋洋流规律的变化,根据对洋流的观测和海平面温度数据模型的分析,最后得出的结论是:全球变暖的趋势在未来10年将会减弱.

三、"怪天气"极端情况变得越来越普通,制订早期预警体系紧迫

美国亨利·施瓦茨最近一项研究报告说:"我们最担心的是极端情况,也就是可能发生的种种意外.我们认为现在就该开始把这个问题作为交通规划和运营时必须考虑的内容."施瓦茨说,特别需要指出的是,海平面上升可能使美国沿海人口稠密地区的公路,管道和机场受损.美国一些最繁忙的机场都建在较低的沿海地区,很容易因为海平面上升被淹没.世界气象组织新闻公报表明,应对天气变化已经不是什么未雨绸缪的长远话题,而是兵临城下的当务之急.联合国救灾机构"国际减灾战略"发出警告,所谓的"怪天气"正变得越来越普通,越来越多的异常天气将成为"正常"现象.因此,全球行动,共同应对气候变化更加紧迫.

2016年6月12日,一个由多国科学家组成的研究小组提出了可能引发地球进入危险状态的九大因素,厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象也位列其中.主导这项研究的英国东安格利亚大学的科学家蒂莫西·伦托说,如果全球平均气温因温室气体排放增加而继续上升,气候变化可能导致地球的主要物理学基础发生变化,并使地球进入危险状态.他们为此总结了九大可能引发地球进入危险状态的因素,这些因素会使地球出现海平面大幅上涨,灾害天气频发等现象.九大

本文是一篇环境科学论文范文,环境科学有关自考毕业论文开题报告,关于学周刊发表文2016年,学周刊发表文资料相关函授毕业论文范文。适合环境科学及图书馆及大气科学方面的的大学硕士和本科毕业论文以及环境科学相关开题报告范文和职称论文写作参考文献资料下载。

世界气象组织秘书长米歇尔·雅罗发表声明说:"全球对加强季节性气候预测的科学投入太少."他说,该组织明年举行的全球会议将着重讨论这个议题,研究"未来10年内需要哪种类型的科学,能够提供这种类型的季节性气候预测,从而挽救人们的生命和生计".

四、气候专家称预测气候影响很难

法国气象局的季节性气候预报中指出,2016年欧洲春天的温度将显着高于往年,尤其是在4月,5月,6月三个月份.而英国哈德利中心近期推出了一份近5年内的全球气候变化报告,题目却与厄尔尼诺现象有关.面对纷繁复杂的气候问题,人类目前还缺乏有效的监控手段和防范措施.中国国家气候中心专家接受记者采访时说,"拉尼娜"现象指的是厄尔尼诺现象的反相,是发生在赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象,其评判标准在国际上还存在一定差别.目前,中国气象局国家气候中心在业务上主要以"厄尔尼诺综合区"(赤道中,东太平洋海区)海温距平指数(简写为NINOZ指数)作为判定标准:当NINOZ指数至少持续6个月低于-0.5℃,或该指数持续5个月低于-0.5℃,而且这5个月指数之和小于等于-4℃,就定义为"拉尼娜事件".拉尼娜现象通过海洋与大气之间的能量交换,改变大气环流而影响气候的变化."拉尼娜事件"发生的当年冬季,北半球中高纬度地区大气环流的经向度加强,冷空气活动频繁,易造成我国北方和东部大部地区气温偏低.从历史研究来看,拉尼娜现象影响最为显着的是热带地区,对于中国的影响比较间接.但每一次拉尼娜事件发生的原因和其系统并非一成不变,比如,2016年年初的一次影响中国南方的低温雨雪天气的成因不仅仅只是拉尼娜现象所导致,还与中国中高纬度大气环流异常相结合有关.正因为几个原因共同作用,因此,年初影响中国南方地区的大范围低温雨雪天气才是几十年来甚至百年一遇的.从已有监测和资料来看,拉尼娜现象对于我国北方的影响在秋冬季最显着,对夏季影响不确定性很大,且拉尼娜现象存在春季障碍的问题,其预报在春季期间更困难,因其变化非常大,尤其是拉尼娜现象在对我国中高纬度的影响属间接影响,在夏季影响的不确定性更大.正由于拉尼娜现象在春季对于气候的影响不确定性非常强,同时亚太地区在春季会有季风环流的变化,因此,目前还很难判断在2016年下半年对于我国和全球的影响.

五、国内外针对气候变化的减灾对策

1,将二氧化碳转化成塑料原料

在处理影响全球气候变暖的温室气体二氧化碳问题上,迄今研究的重点都放在将二氧化碳地下储存上,德国研究人员最近提出了一个不同的思路,即将二氧化碳转化成塑料原料,用于生产饮料瓶,DVD光碟和其他有用的塑料制品.这是德国亚琛工大的研究人员托马斯·米勒最近在美国新奥尔良举行的美国化学协会年会上发表的看法.米勒认为,虽然利用二氧化碳生产塑料原料并不能完全解决全球气候变暖的问题,但对减缓气候变暖会有很大的贡献.

2,减少温室气体排放量

中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所许吟隆教授认为,在减缓温室气体排放的同时,一定要努力提高适应气候变化的能力."即使从现在开始,温室气体不排放了,并且保持2000年的水平,我们整个地球的气温还要再增加0.6摄氏度,但事实上是不可能的.我们的经济要发展,温室气体排放量的增加是不可避免的.但我们所能做的是尽量把排放量减少,让温度变化得小一些.所以说未来20年一定要适应."

3,开展气候变化对环境相关疾病影响的机制研究

我国与世界卫生组织联合启动了气候变化与健康项目.在活动中,卫生部副部长马晓伟谈道,针对气候变化影响人体健康的问题,卫生部已开展气候变化对环境相关疾病的影响机制研究,探索气候类型,空气污染与气候变化等多因素交互作用对居民健康的影响,气候变暖导致飓风,洪水等极端的气候事件,会触发某些虫媒病的暴发流行.气候变暖可能引起海平面上升,大片地区降雨,干旱,洪水,暴风等极端事件频发,会导致死亡率,伤残率,传染病发病率等增加.气候变暖后,一般中高纬度地区农业产量增加,而热带和亚热带只能以一些耐高温作物为主,产量下降,尤其是非洲和拉丁美洲.全球最贫穷地区饥荒危机将增加,饥饿和营养不良引起机体免疫力下降,增加人们对疾病的易感性.温室气体,对臭氧层有较大的破坏性,导致阳光中紫外线辐射增加,可能增加皮肤癌,白内障等的发病率.

4,增强安全防范意识完善非传统安全问题的应对机制

增强安全防范和忧患意识."天下虽安,忘战必危","居安思危,思则有备,有备无患".一个国家,一个民族不论处于何种地位和形势下,都应该增强安全防范和忧患意识.长期以来,人们把传统安全问题看作与国家的生存死亡直接相关,而对非传统安全问题的危害相对忽略.但近年来,一些触目惊心的非传统安全问题的发生提醒人们,它们的破坏性可能会比传统安全问题还要大.据统计,1980年2005年期间,全世界发生的7500次自然灾害夺去了超过200万人的生命,造成了约1.2万亿美元的经济损失.受全球气候变暖以及降水的年际变化规律影响,近些年来长江流域水旱异常,极端天气事件频繁发生.汉江流域2003年,2005年相继发生20年一遇的大水,而长江流域其他地区来水有所减少.2006年四川,重庆等地出现了百年不遇的特大干旱,2007年汛期重庆又发生了特大洪涝灾害,长江干流部分主要站出现历史同期最低水位,荆江分河道断流长达300天.1月10日以来,我国南方大部分地区和西北地区东部出现了历史上罕见的低温,雨雪凝冻极端天气,来势凶猛,抱残酷的冬天美国有限电视新闻网1月28日用这样的标题报道我国的灾情.同一天,路透社记者在新闻稿中描述道:疯狂的大雪横穿中国,上万的人进退两难."在雪灾发生的很长一段时间内,气象,灾情等重要信息没有被有效传达,甚至在雪灾预警发出后的一段时间,灾情扩大等紧要信息也没有通过有效的传播渠道及时,准确地传递给政府决策部门和社会各界,导致公众未能及时调整自己的出行计划,使得相关政府和危机管理部门对这场灾情的严重性估计不足,延误了最佳救援时机.

((孟遂珍)

返回目录大气科学信息追踪

利用区域气候模型对大西洋盆底的一项研究显示,21世纪末,由全球气候变暖而造成的飓风和热带风暴的频率将更为稀少.这一发表在Nature453卷上论文的新观点与现有的部分观点不一致,这些观点认为气候变化将会增加热带风暴和飓风出现频率.

利用一个用于模拟和重建1980-2006年飓风出现频率的大西洋盆底区域模型,TomKuntson和同事采纳了驱动这一模型的所有有关21世纪末的气候模型项目,发现到21世纪末,飓风出现的频率会下降,但与飓风和热带风暴相关的降雨量却会大幅增加.

这一模型支持了这样的假设,即最近大西洋飓风数量增加的主要原因是热带大西洋气候的变暖,这种变暖与其它热带海洋盆底的变暖有关,而所有热带大西洋盆底的统一变暖应该与全球变暖有关,但不会造成大西洋飓风出现频率的增加.

(摘译自Nature,Vol.453.No.7196,2016张云荣)

返回目录2007年～2016年部分馆藏新书——"气候变化"专题

1,《中国气候变化科学概论》/丁一汇主编.—北京:气象出版社,2016年,281页,索书号:P467/69

2,《21世纪的气候》/(英)威廉·伯勒斯[WilliamBurroughs]主编,秦大河,丁一汇总译校.—北京:气象出版社,2007年,260页,索书号:P467/45

3,《气候变化与中国水资源》/任国玉主编.—北京:气象出版社,2007年,314页,索书号:P467/51

4,《<,中国应对气候变化国家方案>,贯彻实施与气候变化适应减缓措施技术,影响评估及气象档案资料管理实用全书》(1-4册)/周建国主编.—北京:科学技术出版社,2007年,1513页,索书号:P467/64

5,《低碳经济:气候变化背景下中国的发展之路》/庄贵阳着.—北京:气象出版社,2007年,172页,索书号:P467/52

(杨晓茹)

2016年7月最新到馆中外文期刊目录

序号刊名年,卷,期1Advancesinspaceresearch201641:12,42:22Agriculturalandforestmeteorology.2016148:53Ambio201637:34AnnalesGeophysicae,Atmospheres,HydrospheresandSpaceSciences.201626:4-55Annalsofglaciology.201648:06Astrophysicaljournal2016679:2,680:1-2,681:17AstrophysicaljournalSupplementseries2016177:18Atmosphere-ocean.201646:29Atmosphericenvironment.201642:17-1810Atmosphericresearch.201688:2-411Boundary-layermeteorology.2016128:112CMOSBulletin201636:2-313Catena.201673:214Chinesesciencebulletin201653:12-13,增刊115Climatedynamics.201631:116climatepolicy20168:增刊117Climateresearch.201636:218Climaticchange.201688:3-419ComputationalGeosciences201612:220Computergraphicsworld.201631:621Earth-sciencereviews.201688:3-422Geographicaljournal.2016174:223Geophysicalresearchletters.201635:7-1024GPSworld.201619:625Ice.20070:14526IEEEtransactionsongeoscienceandremotesensing201646:727Internationaljournalofclimatology201628:1,828Internationaljournalofenvironmentandpollution201632:3-429InternationalJournalofMeteorology201633:32830Internationaljournalofremotesensing.201629:11-1231JournalofAppliedMeteorologyandClimatology201647:532Journalofatmosphericandoceanictechnology201625:633Journalofclimate.201621:1134Journalofgeophysicalresearch.A,Spacephysic2016113:535Journalofgeophysicalresearch.C,oceans.2016113:4-536Journalofgeophysicalresearch.D,atmospheres.2016113:9-1037Journalofglaciology.201654:18538Journalofhydrometeorology.20169:339Journalofphysicaloceanography.201638:640JournaloftheAir&,WasteManagementAssociation.201658:6-741Journaloftheatmosphericsciences.201665:642JournaloftheMeteorologicalSocietyofJapan201686:243JournalofTropicalMeteorology201614:144Meteorologicalapplicatio

本文是一篇环境科学论文范文,环境科学有关自考毕业论文开题报告,关于学周刊发表文2016年,学周刊发表文资料相关函授毕业论文范文。适合环境科学及图书馆及大气科学方面的的大学硕士和本科毕业论文以及环境科学相关开题报告范文和职称论文写作参考文献资料下载。

返回目录外大气科学期刊论文摘 要天气

1,PerfectPrognosisSchemeforForecastingWarm-SeasonLightningoverFlorida

关于预报佛罗里达上空暖季闪电的理想预报方法

PhillipE.Shafer等

Thisstudydevelopsandevaluatesastatisticalschemeforforecastingwarm-seasonlightningoverFlorida.FourwarmseasonsofanalysisdatafromtheRapidUpdateCycle(RUC)andlightningdatafromtheNationalLightningDetectionNetworkareusedinaperfectprognosistechniquetodevelopahigh-resolution,griddedforecastguidanceproductforwarm-seasoncloud-to-ground(CG)lightningoverFlorida.ThemostimportantRUC-derivedparametersareusedtodevelopequationsproducing3-hourlyspatialprobabilityforecastoroneormoreCGflashes,aswellastheprobabilityofexceedinarioulashcountpercentilethresholds.Binarylogisticregressionisusedtodeveloptheequationoroneormoreflashes,whileanegativebinomialmodelisusedtopredicttheamountoflightning,conditionalononeormoreflashesoccurring.Theschemeisappliedtooutputfromthreemesoscalemodelsduringanindependenttestperiod(the2006warmseason).TheevaluationisperformedusingoutputfromtheNationalCenterorEnvironmentalPrediction(NCEP)13-kmRUC(RUC13),theNCEP12-kmNorthAmericanMesoscaleModel,andlocalhigh-resolutionrunsoftheWeatherResearchandForecasting(WRF)ModelforadomainoversouthFlorida.Forecastromallthreemesoscalemodelsgenerallyshowpositiveskillthroughthe2100–2359UTCperiodwithrespecttoamodelcontainingonlyclimatologyandpersistence(L-CLIPER)andpersistencealone.Aforecastexampleusingthehigh-resolutionWRFModelisshownfor16–17August2006.Althoughtheexacttimingandplacementofforecastlightningarenotperfect,theregenerallyisgoodagreementbetweentheforecastsandtheirverification,withmostoftheobservedlightningoccurringwithinthehigherforecastprobabilitycontours.

MonthlyWeatherReview136(6)1817–1846(馆藏纸本,电子版

ams.allenpress./perlserv/request等于get-abstract&,doi等于10.1175%2F2007MWR2222.1)

(孟遂珍选编)

2,TheIntegralRoleofaDiabaticRossbyVortexinaHeySnowfallEvent

非绝热罗斯贝涡流在重大降雪事件中不可缺少的作用

RichardW.Moore等

On24–25February2005,asignificantEastCoastcyclonedepositedfrom4tonearly12in.(10–30cm)ofsnowonpartsofthenortheasternUnitedStates.Theheiestsnowfallandmostrapiddeepeningofthecyclonecoincidedwiththeforablepositioningofanupper-level,short-wetroughimmediatelyupstreamofapreexistingsurfacecyclone.Thesurfacecycloneinquestionformedapproximately15hbeforetheheiestsnowfallalongacoastalfrontinaregionoffrontogenesisandheyprecipitation.Theincipientsurfacecyclonesubsequentlyintensifiedasitmovedtothenortheast,consistentlygeneratingthestrongestconvectiontotheeast-northeastofthelow-levelcirculationcenter.Theuseofpotentialvorticity(PV)inversiontechniquesandasuiteofmesoscalemodelsimulationsillustratesthattheearlyintensificationoftheincipientsurfacecyclonewasprimarilydrivenbydiabaticeffectsandwasnotcriticallydependentontheupper-levelwe.Thesefacts,takeninconjunctionwiththeobservedstructure,energetics,andLagrangianevolutionoftheincipientsurfacedisturbance,identifyitasadiabaticRossbyvortex(DRV).TheantecedentsurfacevorticityspinupassociatedwiththeDRVphaseofdevelopmentioundtobeintegraltothesubsequentrapidgrowth.Thequalitativesimilaritywithanumberofobservedcasesofexplosivecyclogenesisleesop

本文是一篇环境科学论文范文,环境科学有关自考毕业论文开题报告,关于学周刊发表文2016年,学周刊发表文资料相关函授毕业论文范文。适合环境科学及图书馆及大气科学方面的的大学硕士和本科毕业论文以及环境科学相关开题报告范文和职称论文写作参考文献资料下载。

MonthlyWeatherReview136(6):1878–1897(馆藏纸本,电子版

ams.allenpress./perlserv/request等于get-abstract&,doi等于10.1175%2F2007MWR2257.1)

(孟遂珍选编)

3,FredictionofLandfallingHurricaneswiththeAdvancedHurricaneWRFModel

用先进WRF飓风模式预报着陆飓风

ChristopherDis等

Real-timeforecastsoffivelandfallingAtlantichurricanesduring2005usingtheAdvancedResearchWeatherResearchandForecasting(WRF)(ARW)Modelatgridspacingsof12and4kmrevealedperformancegenerallypetitivewith,andoccasionallysuperiorto,otheroperationalforecastorstormpositionandintensity.Recurringerrorsinclude1)excessiveintensificationpriortolandfall,2)insufficientmomentumexchangewiththesurface,and3)inabilitytocapturerapidintensificationwhenobserved.ToaddresstheseerrorsseveralaugmentationsofthebasicmunitymodelhebeendesignedandtestedaspartofwhatistermedtheAdvancedHurricaneWRF(AHW)model.BasedonsensitivitysimulationsofKatrina,theinner-corestructure,particularlythesizeoftheeye,waoundtobesensitivetomodelresolutionandsurfacemomentumexchange.TheforecastofrapidintensificationandthestructureofconvectivebandsinKatrinawerenotsignificantlyimproveduntilthegridspacingapproached1km.Couplingtheatmosphericmodeltoacolumnar,mixedlayeroceanmodeleliminatedmuchoftheerroneousintensificationofKatrinapriortolandfallnotedinthereal-timeforecast.

MonthlyWeatherReview136(6):1990–2005(馆藏纸本,电子版

ams.allenpress./perlserv/request等于get-abstract&,doi等于10.1175%2F2007MWR2085.1)

(孟遂珍选编)

4,MesoscaleFeaturesAssociatedwithTropicalCycloneFormationsintheWesternNorthPacific

与西北太平洋热带气旋形成相关的中尺度特征

Cheng-ShangLee等

Themesoscalefeaturesof124tropicalcycloneformationsinthewesternNorthPacificOceanduring1999–2004areinvestigatedthroughlarge-scaleanalyses,satelliteinfraredbrightnesstemperature(TB),andQuickScatterometer(QuikSCAT)oceanicwinddata.Basedonlow-levelwindflowandsurgedirection,theformationcasesareclassifiedintosixsynopticpatterns:easterlywe(EW),northeasterlyflow(NE),coexistenceofnortheasterlyandsouthwesterlyflow(NE–SW),southwesterlyflow(SW),monsoonconfluence(MC),andmonsoonshear(MS).Thenthegeneralconvectioncharacteristicsandmesoscaleconvectivesystem(MCS)activitiesassociatedwiththeseformationcasesarestudiedunderthisclassificationscheme.ConvectionprocessesintheEWcasesaredistinguishedfromthemonsoon-relatedformationsinthattheconvectionislessdeepandclosertotheformationcenter.Fivecharacteristictemporalevolutionsofthedeepconvectionareidentified:(i)singleconvectionevent,(ii)twoconvectionevents,(iii)threeconvectionevents,(iv)gradualdecreaseinTB,and(v)fluctuatingTB,oraslightincreaseinTBbeforeformation.Althoughnodominanttemporalevolutiondifferentiatescasesinthesixsynopticpatterns,evolutionsiiandiiiseemtobethemonroutestakenbythemonsoon-relatedformations.TheoverallpercentageofcaseswithMCSactivityatmultipletimesis63%,andin35%ofcaseorethanoneMCScoexisted.MostoftheMCandMScasesdevelopmultipleMCSsthatleadtoseveralepisodesofdeepconvection.ThesetwopatternshethehighestpercentageofcoexistingMCSssuchthatpotentialinteractionbetweenthesesystemayplayaroleintheformationprocess.TheMCSsinthemonsoon-relatedformationsaredistributedaroundthecenter,exceptintheNE–SWcasesinwhichclusteringofMCSsioundabout100–200kmeastofthecenterduringthe12hbeforeformation.OnerageonlyoneMCSoccursduringanEWformation,whereasthemeanvalueisaroundtwofortheothermonsoon-relatedpatterns.BoththemeanlifetimeandtimeoffirstappearanceofMCSinEWaremuchshorterthanthosedevelopedinothersynopticpatterns,whichindicatesthattheoverallformationevolutionintheEWcaseiaster.Moreover,thisMCSiostlikelytobefoundwithin100kmeastofthecenter12hbeforeformation.Theimplicationsoftheseresultstointernalmechanisoftropicalcycloneformationarediscussedinlightofotherrecentmesoscalestudies.

MonthlyWeatherReview136(6):2006–2022(馆藏纸本,电子版

ams.allenpress./perlserv/request等于get-abstract&,doi等于10.1175%2F2007MWR2267.1)

(孟遂珍选编)

5,ObservedStructure,Evolution,andPotentialIntensityofCategory5HurricaneIsabel(2003)from12to14September

2003年9月12-14日观测到的5类飓风Isabel的结构,演变和潜在强度

MichaelM.Bell等

UnprecedentedobservationsofHurricaneIsabel(2003)atcategory5intensitywerecollectedfrom12to14September.Thisstudypresentsadetailedanalysisoftheinner-corestructure,atmosphericboundarylayer,seasurfacetemperature,andoutflowlayerofasuperintensetropicalcycloneusinghigh-resolutioninsituflight-level,NCARGPSdropwindsonde,Dopplerradar,andsatellitemeasurements.Theanalysisofthedropwindsondeandinsitudataincludesaprehensivediscussionoftheuncertaintiesassociatedwiththisobservationaldatasetandprovidesanestimateofthestorm-relativeaxisymmetricinner-corestructureusingBarnesobjectiveanalysis.Anassesentofgradientandthermalwindbalanceintheinnercoreisalsopresented.TheaxisymmetricdatapositespresentedinthisstudysuggestthatIsabelbuiltareservoirofhighmoistentropyairbysea-to-airlatentheatfluxinsidethelow-leveleyethatwasutilizedasanadditionalenergysourcetonearlymaintainitsextremeintensityevenaftercrossingthecoolwakeofHurricaneFabian.Itisarguedherethatthebinedmeanandasymmetriceddyfluxofhighmoistentropyairfromthelow-leveleyeintotheeyewallrepresentsanadditionalpowersourceor"turboboost"tothehurricaneheatengine.Recentestimatesoftheratioofsea-to-airenthalpyandmomentumexchangeathighwindspeedsareusedtosuggestthatIsabelutilizedthisextrapowertoexceedthepreviouslyassumedintensityupperboundforthegivenenvironmentalconditionsonallthreedays.Thisdiscrepancybetweenaprioripotentialintensitytheoryandobservationaybeashighas35ms1on13September.

MonthlyWeatherReview136(6):2023–2046(馆藏纸本,电子版

ams.allenpress./perlserv/request等于get-abstract&,doi等于10.1175%2F2007MWR1858.1)

(孟遂珍选编)

6,TornadoWarnings,LeadTimes,andTornadoCasualties:AnEmpiricalInvestigation

龙卷预警,前置期和龙卷风伤亡:实况调查

KevinM.Simmons等

Conventionalwisdomholdsthatimprovedtornadowarningswillreducetornadocasualties,becauselongerleadtimesonwarningsprovideextraopportunitiestoalertresidentswhocanthentakeprecautions.TherelationshipbetweenwarningsandcasualtiesisexaminedusingadatasetoftornadoesinthecontiguousUnitedStatesbetween1986and2002.Twoquestionsareexamined:DoesawarningissuedonatornadoreducetheresultingnumberoffatalitiesandinjuriesDolongerleadtimesreducecasualtiesItioundthatwarningshehadasignificantandconsistenteffectontornadoinjuries,withareductionofover40%atsomeleadtimeintervals.Theresultorfatalitiesaremixed.Anincreaseinleadtimeuptoabout15minreduceatalities,whileleadtimeslongerthan15minincreasefatalitiesparedwithnowarning.Thefatalityresultsbeyond15min,however,dependonfivekillertornadoesandconsequentlyarenotrobust.

WeatherandForecasting23(

本文是一篇环境科学论文范文,环境科学有关自考毕业论文开题报告,关于学周刊发表文2016年,学周刊发表文资料相关函授毕业论文范文。适合环境科学及图书馆及大气科学方面的的大学硕士和本科毕业论文以及环境科学相关开题报告范文和职称论文写作参考文献资料下载。

ams.allenpress./perlserv/request等于get-abstract&,doi等于10.1175%2F2007WAF2006027.1

(孟遂珍选编)

7,ApplyingSatellite-EstimatedStormRotationSpeedtoImproveTyphoonRainfallPotentialTechnique

应用卫星估算风暴的旋转速度来改进台风降水潜在技术

Gin-RongLiu等

Heyrainfallfromtyphoonsortropicalcyclonesoftencausesinlandfloodingandmudslidesthatthreatenlivesandproperty.Inthisstudy,SpecialSensorMicroweImager(S/I)satellitedataobservedfrom2000to2004wereusedtocalculatetherainfallratesofdifferenttyphoonsinthenorthwesternPacific.Geostationaryweathersatelliteinfraredimageswerealsoappliedtoestimatethetyphoonrotationspeedviathemaximumcross-correlationtechnique.Byincludingsuchinformationinthetropicalrainfallpotential(TRaP)technique,animprovedtyphoonrainfallpotentialtechniquecanbeconstructed.Consideringthefactthatatyphoon'sspiralrainbandoveconstantly,half-hourlyorhourlyinfrareddataobservedfromgeostationaryweathersatelliteswereusedtocalculatetherevolvingspeed,whichwassubsequentlyusedtopredicttherainbandmovementoverthenexthour.AfterparingthepredictedrainfallpotentialwiththeraingaugedataofTaiwan'salloffshoreislands,itwaoundthatthisnewmethodcanimprovethetyphoon'saccumulatedrainfallbyapproximately40%overtheoriginalTRaPmethod.Therefore,toproduceamoreaccurateshort-termtyphoonrainfallforecast,itisveryimportanttofactorinthesatellite-estimatedstormrotationspeed.

WeatherandForecasting23(2):259–269(馆藏纸本,电子版

ams.allenpress./perlserv/request等于get-abstract&,doi等于10.1175%2F2007WAF2006101.1

(孟遂珍选编)

8,Lower-TroposphericEnhancementofGrityWeDraginaGlobalSpectralAtmosphericForecastModel

全球光谱大气预报模式中重力波曳力的低层对流增强

Song-YouHong等

Theimpactsofenhancedlower-troposphericgritywedraginducedbysubgrid-scaleorographyonshort-andmedium-rangeforecastsaswellasseasonalsimulationsareexamined.ThisstudyreportsontheenhancedperformanceoftheschemeproposedbyKimandArakawa,whichhasbeenusedintheNationalCenterorEnvironmentalPrediction(NCEP)GlobalSpectralModelsince1997.Theperformanceisevaluatedagainstatraditionalupper-leveldragschemethatisalsoailableinthemodel.TheexperimentresultsrevealthattheKim–ArakawaschemeimprovesthemovementandintensityofanextratropicalcycloneandacontinentalhighpressuresystemthatwasacpaniedbyheysnowfalloverKoreaon14–15February2001.Themonthlyverificationformedium-rangeforecastsinDecember2006,whichareinitializedbytheNCEPoperationalanalysis,demonstratesoverallimprovementsintheforecastsoflarge-scalefieldsintheNorthernHemisphere.ModerateimprovementsarealsofoundintheseasonalsimulationofDecember–Februaryfortheyears1996/97,1997/98,and1999/2000.Thisstudyconcludesthattheenhancedlower-leveldragshouldbeproperlyparameterizedinglobalatmosphericmodelornumericalweatherpredictionandseasonalprediction.

WeatherandForecasting23(3):523–531(馆藏纸本,电子版

ams.allenpress./perlserv/request等于get-abstract&,doi等于10.1175%2F2007WAF2007030.1)

(孟遂珍选编)

9,ImpactofDeformationSrainontheFormationofBandedCloudsinIdealizedModellingExperiments

在理想化模拟试验形张力对带状云系形成的影响

S.L.Gray等

Experimentsareperformedusinganidealizedversionofanoperationalforecastmodeltodeterminetheimpactonbandedfrontalcloudsofthestrengthofdeformationalforcing,low-levelbaroclinicity,andmodelrepresentationofconvection.Lineconvectionisinitiatedalongthefront,andslantwisebandsextendfromthetopoftheline-convectionelementsintothecoldair.ThisbandingisattributedprimarilytoMadjustment.Thecross-frontalspreadingofthecoldpoolgeneratedbythelineconvectionleadstofurthertriggeringofuprightconvectioninthecoldairthatfeedsintotheseslantwisebands.Secondarylow-levelbandormlaterinthesimulations,theseareattributedtothereleaseofconditionalsymmetricinstability.Enhanceddeformationstrainleadstoearlieronsetofconvectionandmorecoherentlineconvection.Astrongercoldpoolisgenerated,butitsspeedisreducedrelativetothatseeninexperimentswithweakerdeformationalstrain,becauseofinhibitionbythestrainfield.Enhancedlow-levelbaroclinicityleadstothegenerationofmoreinertialinstabilitybylineconvection(foragivencappingheightofconvection),andconsequentlygreaterstrengthoftheslantwisecirculationormedbyMadjustment.Theseconclusionsarebasedonexperimentswithoutaconvective-parametrizationscheme.Experimentsusingthestandardoramodifiedschemeforthiodeldemonstrateknownproblemswiththeuseofthisschemeattheawkward4kmgridlengthusedinthesesimulations.

TheQuarterlyJournaloftheRoyalMeteorologicalSociety134(633):859-874

(馆藏纸本,电子版

3.interscience.wiley./journal/119815585/abstract

(孟遂珍选编)

10,GlobalObservationsofHNO3FromtheHighResolutionDynamicsLimbSounder(HIRDLS):Firstresults

来自HIRDLS的全球HNO3观测值:初始结果

D.E.Kinnison等

WepresentthefirstevaluationoftheHNO3dataproduct(version2.04.09)fromtheHighResolutionDynamicsLimbSounder(HIRDLS)ontheEarthObservingSystem(EOS)Aurasatellite.TheHIRDLSinstrumentobtainsbetween5000and7000HNOrofilesperday.HIRDLSHNO3dataaregenerallygoodoverthelatituderangeof64°Sto80°Nandpressurerange100to10hPa,withsomeprofiles,dependingonlatitude,hingusefulinformationbetween100to161hPa.Theindividualprofile"measured"precisionisbetween10and15%,butcanbemuchlargeriftheHNO3abundanceisloworoutsidethe100hPato10hParange.GlobalresultsareparedwiththeHNO3observationromversion2.2oftheEOSAuraMicroweLimbSounder(MLS),anditioundthatlarge-scalefeaturesareconsistentbetweenthetwoinstruments.HIRDLSHNO3isbiased0–20%lowrelativetoAuraMLSinthemid-to-highlatitudesandbiasedhighinthetropicalstratosphere.HIRDLSHNO3isalsoparedwithAtmosphericChemistryExperimentFourierTranormSpectrometer(ACE-FTS).Inthesemostlyhigh-latitudeparisonstheHIRDLSHNO3dataarebiased10–30%low,dependingonaltitude.Finally,theHIRDLSHNO3isparedtoinsitudatatakenbytheNOAAChemicalIonizationMassSpectrometer(CIMS)instrumentflownduringthe2005NASAHoustonAuraValidationExperiment(E)andtheabilityofHIRDLStomeasureHNO3intheUTLSregionisexamined.

JournalofGeophysicalResearch,113(D13)(馆藏纸本,电子版

agu./pubs/crossref/2016/2007JD008814.s

(孟遂珍选编)

气候

imatologyofSmall-ScaleOrographicPecipitationovertheOlympicMountains:PatternsandProcesses

奥林匹斯山脉上空的小尺度地形降水气候学:天气型与过程

JustinR.Minder等

Theclimatologyofall-scalepatternsofmountainprecipitationispoorlyconstrained,yetimportantforapplicationsrangingfromnaturalhazardassesenttounderstandingthegeologicevolutionofmountainranges.Synthesizingfourrainyseasonsofhigh-resolutionprecipitationobservationsandmesoscalemodeloutput(fromthePennState/NCARMM5),revealsapersistentall-scalepatternofprecipitationoverthe10kmwide,800mhighridgesandvalleysofthewesternOlympicMountains,WashingtonState,USA.Thispatternischaracterizedbya50-70%excessaccumulationovertheridgecrestsrelativetotheadjacentvalleysintheannualmean.While

本文是一篇环境科学论文范文,环境科学有关自考毕业论文开题报告,关于学周刊发表文2016年,学周刊发表文资料相关函授毕业论文范文。适合环境科学及图书馆及大气科学方面的的大学硕士和本科毕业论文以及环境科学相关开题报告范文和职称论文写作参考文献资料下载。

Investigationofarangeofstormeventshasrevealedthefollowingmechanifortheclimatologicalpattern.Regionsofenhancedcondensationofcloudwaterareproducedbyascentinstableflowoverthewindwardslopesofmajorridges.Synopticallygeneratedprecipitationgrowsbycollectionwithintheseclouds,leadingtoenhancedprecipitationwhichisadvectedbytheprevailingwinds.

Instancesofatypicalpatternsofprecipitationsuggestthatundercertainconditions(duringperiodswithalowfreezinglevel,orconvectivecells)fundamentalchangesinall-scalepatternayoccur.However,case-studiesandpositeanalysissuggestthatdepartureromthepatternofridge-topenhancementarerare,thebasicpatternsandprocessesappearrobusttochangesintemperature,winds,andbackgroundrainfallrates.

TheQuarterlyJournaloftheRoyalMeteorologicalSociety134(633):817-839(馆藏纸本,电子版

3.interscience.wiley./journal/119816998/abstract)

(孟遂珍选编)

12,AnOcean–AtmosphereInteractionMechanifortheActiveBreakCycleoftheAsianSummerMonsoon

亚洲夏季季风活动一中断循环的海洋-大气交换机制

P.V.Joseph等

Atypicalactive–breakcycleoftheAsiansummermonsoonistakenasbeginningwithmaximumSST(pentad0)overthenorthBayofBengalwhentheoceanstoitswestandeastfromlongitude40°–160°E,andbetweenlatitudes10°and25°N(areaA)alsohaaximumSST.Duringthispentadtherecentlyfound"ColdPool"oftheBayofBengal(betweenlatitudes3°Nand10°N)hasitinimumSST.AnareaofconvectiontakesgenesisovertheBayofBengalimmediatelyafterpentad0inthezoneoflargeSSTgradientnorthoftheColdPoolanditpullsthemonsoonLowLevelJetstream(LLJ)throughpeninsularIndia.ConvectionandtheLLJwesterliesthenspreadtothewesternPacificOceanduringpentads1–4takenastheactivephaseofthemonsoonduringwhichconvectionandLLJhegrowninapositivefeedbackprocess.ThecyclonicvorticitytothenorthoftheLLJaxisishypothesizedtoactasaflywheelmaintainingtheconvectionduringthelongactivephaseagainstthedissipatingeffectofatmosphericstabilizationbyeachshortspellofdeepconvection.Bytheendofpentad4theSSToverareaAhascooledandtheconvectionweakensthere,whentheLLJturnsclockwiseovertheArabianSeaandflowsclosetotheequatorintheIndianocean.Abandofconvectiondevelopsatpentad5betweentheequatorandlatitude10°SovertheIndianoceananditisnourishedbythecyclonicvorticityoftheLLJnowneartheequatorandthemoisturesupplythroughit.Thisistakenasthebreakmonsoonphaselastingforaboutthreetofourpentadsbeginningfrompentad5ofapositeactive–breakcycleof40dayduration.WithreducedwindandconvectionovertheareaAduringthebreakphase,solarradiationandlightwindaketheSSTtherewarmrapidlyandanewactive–breakcyclebegins.SST,convection,LLJandtheheatfluxattheoceansurfaceheimportantrolesinthisnewwayoflookingattheactive–breakcycleasacoupledocean–atmospherephenomenon.

(ClimateDynamics30(6)馆藏纸本,电子版地址china.springerlink./content/21m0627n0mt25402/p等于70375660c22245328672e18ed79a07dd&,pi等于0)SimulationoftheEvolutionaryResponseofGlobalSummerMonsoonstoOrbitalForcingOverthePast280,000Years

模拟过去28万年全球夏季季风对轨道强迫的演变响应

J.E.Kutzbach等

Wedescribetheevolutionaryresponseofnorthernandsouthernhemispheresummermonsoonstoorbitalforcingoverthepast280,000yearsusingafullycoupledgeneralcirculationocean-atmospheremodelinwhichtheorbitalforcingisacceleratedbyafactorof100.Wefindastrongandpositiveresponseofnorthern(southern)summermonsoonprecipitationtonorthern(southern)summerinsolationforcing.Onerage,July(January)precipitationmaximaandA(DJF)precipitationmaximahehighcoherenceandareapproximatelyinphasewithJune(December)insolationmaxima,implyinganeragelagbetweenforcingandresponseofabout30°ofphaseattheprecessionperiod.Theeragelagincreasestoover40°for4-monthprecipitationerages,AS(DJFM).Thephasevarieromregiontoregion.TheerageA(DJF)landtemperaturemaximaalsolagtheJuneorbitalforcingmaximabyabout30°ofphase,whereasoceantemperaturemaximaexhibitalagofabout60°ofphaseattheprecessionperiod.Usinggeneralizedmeasuresofthethermalandhydrologicprocessesthatproducemonsoons,wefindthatthesummermonsoonprecipitationindiceorthesixregionsallfallwithinthephaselimitsoftheprocessindiceortherespectivehemispheres.Selectedobservationalstudieromfourofthesixmonsoonregionsreportapproximatein-phaserelationsofsummermonsoonproxiestosummerinsolation.Howeverotherobservationalstudiesreportsubstantialphaselagsofmonsoonproxiesandastrongponentofforcingassociatedwithglacial-ageboundaryconditionsorotherfactors.Animportantnextstepwillbetoincludeglacial-ageboundaryconditionforcinginlong,transientpaleoclimatesimulations,alongwithorbitalforcing.

(ClimateDynamics30(6)馆藏纸本,电子版地址china.springerlink./content/k20674387p8730ll/p等于27a9c160b6cf43ba9f79c6de19ad4ca2&,pi等于1)otentialFutureChangesintheCharacteristicsofDailyPrecipitationinEuropeSimulatedbytheHIRHAMRegionalClimateModel

用HIRHAM区域气候模式模拟欧洲日降水特性可能的未来变化

WilhelmMay

InthisstudythepotentialfuturechangesinvariousaspectsofdailyprecipitationeventsoverEuropeasaconsequenceoftheanticipatedfutureincreaseintheatmosphericgreenhousegasconcentrationsareinvestigated.Thisisdonebyparingtwo3-memberensemblesofsimulationswiththeHIRHAMregionalclimatemodelfortheperiod1961–1990and2071–2100,respectively.Dailyprecipitationeventsarecharacterizedbytheirfrequencyandintensity,andheyprecipitationeventsaredescribedvia30-yearreturnlevelsofdailyprecipitation.Further,extendedperiodswithandwithoutrainfall(wetanddryspells)arestudied,consideringtheirfrequencyandlengthaswellastheerageandextremeamountsofprecipitationaccumulatedduringwetspells,thelatteragaindescribedvia30-yearreturnlevels.ThesimulationsshowmarkedchangesinthecharacteristicsofdailyprecipitationinEuropeduetotheanticipatedgreenhousewarming.Inwinter,forinstance,thefrequencyofwetdaysisenhancedovermostoftheEuropeancontinentexceptfortheregionontheNorwegianwestcoastandtheMediterraneanregion.Thechangesintheintensityandthe30-yearreturnlevelofdailyprecipitationarecharacterizedbyasimilarpatternexceptforcentralEuropewithatendencyofdecreased30-yearreturnlevelsandincreasedprecipitationintensity.Insummer,ontheotherhand,thefrequencyofwetdaysisdecreasedovermostofEuropeexceptfornorthernScandiniaandtheBalticSearegion.Incontrast,theprecipitationintensityandthe30-yearreturnlevelofdailyprecipitationareincreasedoverentireScandinia,centralandeasternEurope.Thechangesinthe30-yearreturnlevelofdailyprecipitationaregenerallystrongerthanthecorrespondingchangesintheprecipitationintensitybutcanheoppositesignsinsomeregions.Alsothedistributionofwetdaysischangedinthefuture.Duringsummer,forinstance,boththefrequencyandthelengthofdryspellsaresubstantiallyincreasedovermostoftheEuropeancontinentexceptfortheIberianPeninsula.Thefrequencyandthelengthofwetspells,ontheotherhand,aregenerallyreducedduringsummerandincreasedduringwinter,again,withtheexceptionoftheIberianPen

本文是一篇环境科学论文范文,环境科学有关自考毕业论文开题报告,关于学周刊发表文2016年,学周刊发表文资料相关函授毕业论文范文。适合环境科学及图书馆及大气科学方面的的大学硕士和本科毕业论文以及环境科学相关开题报告范文和职称论文写作参考文献资料下载。

(ClimateDynamics30(6)馆藏纸本,电子版地址china.springerlink./content/k655j27432v68q2p/p等于dce1999a4353bea8525c0640b3f4bb&,pi等于2)TheInfluenceofSeaSurfaceTemperatureAnomaliesonLow-FrequencyVariabilityoftheNorthAtlanticOscillation

海面温度异常对北大西洋振荡低频变化的影响

JuliaV.Manganello

Theinfluenceofseasurfacetemperatureanomalies(SSTA)onmulti-yearpersistenceoftheNorthAtlanticOscillation(NAO)duringthesecondhalfofthetwentiethcenturyisinvestigatedusingtheCenterforOcean-Land-AtmosphereStudies(COLA)AtmosphericGCM(AGCM)withanemphasisonisolatingthegeographiclocationoftheSSTAthatproducethisinfluence.ThepresentstudyfocusesoncalculatingtheatmosphericresponsetotheSSTAeragedover1988–1995(1961–1968)correspondingtotheobservedperiodofstrongpersistenceofthepositive(negative)phaseofthedecadalNAO.Themodelresponsetotheglobal1988–1995erageSSTAshowsastatisticallysignificantlarge-scalepatterncharacteristicofthepositivephaseoftheNAO.Forcingwiththeglobal1961–1968erageSSTAgeneratesaNAOoftheoppositepolarityparedtoobservations.However,alllarge-scalefeaturesbothinthemodelandobservationsduringthisperiodareweakerinmagnitudeandlesssignificantparedto1988–1995.AdditionalidealizedexperimentsshowthatoverthenortherncenteroftheNAOthenon-linearponentoftheforcedresponseappearstobequiteimportantandactstoenhancethepositiveNAOsignal.Ontheotherhand,overthesoutherncenterwherethemodelresponseisthestrongest,itisalsoessentiallylinear.The1988–1995erageSSTArestrictedtothewesterntropicalPacificregionproduceapositiveNAOremarkablysimilarinstructurebutstrongerinmagnitudethanthemodelresponsetotheglobalandtropicalIndo-Pacific1988–1995forcing.A200-hPageopotentialheightresponseintheseexperimentsshowsapositiveanomalyoverthesoutherncenteroftheNAOembeddedintheRossbywetrainspropagatingfromthewesterntropicalPacific.IndianOceanSSTAleadtomuchweakerpositiveNAOprimarilythroughtheeffectonitsnortherncenter.SSTforcingconfinedtotheNorthAtlanticnorthofequatordoesnotproducearesponsestatisticallydifferentfromthecontrolsimulation,suggestingthatitisnotstrongenoughtosignificantlyaffectthephaseofthedecadalNAO.InclusionoftheSouthAtlanticnorthof45°southdoesnotchangethisresult.

(ClimateDynamics30(6)馆藏纸本,电子版地址china.springerlink./content/w6723t138068u175/p等于dce1999a4353bea8525c0640b3f4bb&,pi等于4)TheVariationofENSOCharacteristicsAssociatedwithAtmosphericParameterPerturbationsinaCoupledModel

耦合模式中与大气参数微扰有关ENSO特性的变化

ThomasToniazzo等

WeanalysethedifferencesinthepropertiesoftheElNioSouthernOscillation(ENSO)inasetof17coupledintegrationswiththeflux-adjusted,19-levelHadCM3modelwithperturbedatmosphericparameters.Withinthisensemble,thestandarddeviationoftheNINO3.4deseasonalisedSSTsrangerom0.6to1.3K.ThesystematicchangesinthepropertiesoftheENSOwithincreasingamplitudeconfirmthatENSOinHadCM3isprevalentlyasurface(orSST)mode.Thetropical-PacificSSTvariabilityintheensembleofcoupledintegrationscorrelatespositivelywiththeSSTvariabilityinthecorrespondingensembleofatmospheremodelscoupledwithastaticmixed-layerocean("slab"models)perturbedwiththesamechangesinatmosphericparameters.ComparisonwiththerespectivecoupledENSO-neutralclimatologiesandwiththeslab-modelclimatologiesindicateslow-cloudcovertobeanimportantcontrollingfactorofthestrengthoftheENSOwithintheensemble.Ouranalysissuggeststhat,intheHadCM3model,increasedSSTvariabilitylocalisedinthesouth-easttropicalPacific,notoriginatingfromENSOandassociatedwithincreasedamountsoftropicalstratocumuluscloud,causesincreasedENSOvariabilityviaanatmosphericbridgemechani.TherelationshipwithcloudcoveralsoresultsinanegativecorrelationbetweentheENSOactivityandthemodel'sclimatesensitivitytodoublingCO2.

(ClimateDynamics30(6)馆藏纸本,电子版地址china.springerlink./content/n5q976655466t817/p等于1ce5e00da1454596aa780e1130d27d74&,pi等于5)FutureChangesinCycloneClimatologyOverEuropeasInferredFromaRegionalClimateSimulation

区域气候模拟推断的欧洲上空气旋气候学未来变化

P.Lionello等

Thisstudyanalyzesthecycloneclimatologyinregionalclimatemodelsimulationsofpresentday(1961–1990)andfuture(2071–2100,A2andB2emissionscenarios)europeanclimateconditions.ThemodeldomaincoverstheareafromScandiniatoNorthernAfricaandfromtheEasternAtlantictoRussiaatahorizontalgridspacingof50km.Comparedtopresentday,intheA2andB2scenarioconditionstheannualeragestormtrackintensityincreasesovertheNorth-EastAtlanticanddecreasesoverRussiaandtheEasternMediterraneanregion.ThisoverallchangepatternislargerintheA2thanintheB2simulations.However,thecycloneclimatologychangesignalshowsalargeintermonthlyvariabilityandimportantdifferencesacrossEuropeanregions.ThelargestchangesarefoundovertheNorth-EastAtlantic,wherethestormtrackintensityincreasesinwinteranddecreasesinsummer.AsignificantreductionofstormtrackintensityioundduringlatesummerandautumnovertheMediterraneanregion,andfromOctobertoJanuaryoverRussia.ThenumberofcyclonesdecreasesinfutureconditionsthroughoutEurope,exceptovertheCentralEuropeandMediterraneanregionsinsummer(whereitincreases).ThefrequencyofintensecyclonesandthedepthofextremecyclonesincreaseovertheNorth-EastAtlantic,decreaseoverRussiaandshowanirregularresponseovertherestofthedomain.

(ClimateDynamics30(6)馆藏纸本,电子版地址china.springerlink./content/m76p64n078w8x312/p等于1ce5e00da1454596aa780e1130d27d74&,pi等于6)InterannualVariationsandFutureChangeofWintertimeExtratropicalCycloneActivityOverNorthAmericainCC3

CC3模式中北美洲上空冬季温带气旋活动的年际变率和未来变化

HaiyanTeng等

ClimatologyandinterannualvariationsofwintertimeextratropicalcyclonefrequencyinCC3twentiethcenturysimulationareparedwiththeNCEP/NCARreanalysisduring1950–1999.CC3cansimulatethestormtracksreasonablywell,althoughthemodelproducesslightlylesscyclonesatthebeginningofthePacificandAtlanticstormtracksandweakerpolewarddeflectionoverthePacific.Asinthereanalysis,frequencyofcyclonesstrongerthan980hPashowssignificantcorrelationwiththePacific/NorthAmerica(PNA)teleconnectionpatternoverthePacificregionandwiththeNorthAtlanticOscillation(NAO)intheAtlanticsector.Compositemapsareconstructedforoppositepha

本文是一篇环境科学论文范文,环境科学有关自考毕业论文开题报告,关于学周刊发表文2016年,学周刊发表文资料相关函授毕业论文范文。适合环境科学及图书馆及大气科学方面的的大学硕士和本科毕业论文以及环境科学相关开题报告范文和职称论文写作参考文献资料下载。

(ClimateDynamics30(7-8)馆藏纸本,电子版地址china.springerlink./content/k8n538v1r65l1x14/p等于59f22016bbf74791a20c6de500f6ed04&,pi等于0)SensitivityofSimulatedWintertimeArcticAtmospheretoVverticalResolutionintheARPEGE/IFodel

模拟冬季北极大气在ARPEGE/IFS模式里垂直分辨率的灵敏度

yvindByrkjedal等

Thecurrentstate-of-the-artgeneralcirculationmodels,includingseveralofthoseusedbytheIPCC,showconsiderablebiasesinthesimulatedpresentdayhigh-latitudeclimateparedtoobservationsandreanalysisdata.Thesebiasesaremostpronouncedduringthewinterseason.Wehereemployidealverticalprofilesoftemperatureandwindfromturbulence-resolvingsimulationstoperformaprioristudiesofthefirst-ordereddy-viscosityclosureschemeemployedintheARPEGE/IFSmodel.Thisrevealsthatthecoarseverticalresolution(31layers)ofthemodelcannotbeexpectedtorealisticallyresolvetheArcticstableboundarylayer.ThecurvatureoftheArcticinversionandthusalsotheverticalturbulent-exchangeprocessescannotbereproducedbythecoarseverticalmeshemployed.ToinvestigatehowturbulentverticalexchangeprocessesintheArcticboundarylayerarerepresentedbythemodelparameterization,asimulationwithhighverticalresolution(90layersintotal)inthelowertroposphereisperformed.Re